Timing the Bottom.

There might be a price bottom forming as first-time buyers and investors vie for homes on the lower end of the market, but it was up to debate whether it could last.
Seven local real estate experts met at The Daily Transcript offices Friday to discuss current issues in the housing market and talk about where home prices are headed.
San Diego County home resales have been up nearly 50 percent this year compared to 2008. The median price of both detached and attached homes have hovered around $340,000 and $200,000, respectively, for the past four months.
Participants said there is heavy competition for lower-end homes.
“It’s a great opportunity for first time buyers,” said Mark Goldman, professor of real estate at San Diego State University and certified mortgage planning specialist. “But the restrictions are getting so tough that first-time buyers can’t hop in and if they can, they’re being outbid for these buy investors -- all cash.”
“Anybody who tries to time it is nuts,” said Miller about trying to purchase a home at the bottom of the market. “If you get within three months or five months of the bottom you did great.” from Daily Transcript Jen Lebron-Kuhney

The San Diego Association of Governments board of directors voted Friday to approve a plan to spend $235.8 million in federal economic stimulus funds.
The California Transportation Commission estimates that every $1 billion the state receives in federal stimulus funds will generate 18,000 jobs in the state. We are slated to receive $47 billion total for infrastructure projects.

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February Home Sales up 30% from 2008 in San Diego County

Alan Gin, professor of economics at the University of San Diego, said that "possibly" a pricing bottom is near, but added increasing levels of unemployment may pose the biggest threat to stability in the market in coming months.

The relatively flat median prices combined with the steady home sales are a good sign for the market, said Rick Hoffman CEO and president of Coldwell Banker's San Diego County and Inland Empire regions."I believe the consumers are going to drive the recovery," he said. "So when the consumers perceive that the value is in the marketplace it brings the bottom of the pricing." That's going to be the genesis of the recovery. And I believe we're already moving in that direction."
By JEN LEBRON KUHNEY, The Daily Transcript

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Why I think the end is near.

Any lender who takes the new taxpayer bailout money under the Financial Stability Plan will be required to participate in the loan modification program. The new rate given to troubled borrowers would be put into place for 5 years. After that time it can rise 1% per year until it goes back up to the rate it was at the time of modification.

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Is the bottom here?

Housing sales trends here in the West continue to run counter to national trends. The National Association of Realtors reported this morning that pending home sales - properties in the escrow process - rose in the West in January by 2.4 percent, compared to a national decline of 7.7 percent. No doubt harsh weather may have had an impact in certain areas. For instance, the Northeast saw a decline of 12.7 percent and pending sales were down 19.7 percent compared to the same month a year ago. In the West, pending sales are actually 13.5 percent higher than they were in January 2008.
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The NAR report also showed that housing affordability is at an all-time high, the result of lower home prices and declining mortgage interest rates. Chief economist Lawrence Yun says other factors may bring buyers into the market. "Buyers are expected to to respond to much improved affordability conditions and from the $8,000 first-time buyer tax credit," Yun said.